Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
Commonwealth Bank Adjusts Rate Cut Timeline Amidst Labor Market Trends
7
The information on this website is general in nature and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation, or needs. Consider seeking personal advice from a licensed adviser before acting on any information.
As financial experts eagerly await the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) upcoming board meeting, the Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has shifted its forecast regarding the advent of the next rate cut.
Contrary to popular anticipation, the bank now predicts the rate cut will be delayed, posing less optimistic news for mortgage holders seeking financial reprieve.
The financial community widely expects the RBA to keep the cash rate stable during this session, a forecast deemed straightforward in light of the recent federal budget. However, CBA's latest insights suggest the easing cycle-initially anticipated to alleviate strained mortgage holders-will be postponed due to prevailing uncertainties surrounding inflation forecasts.
Gareth Aird, CBA's head of Australian economics, indicated that recent labor market data shows little motivation for the RBA to alter its policy direction. According to Aird, the current state of the labor market, characterized by a "loosening" at essential levels, supports a prediction that the RBA will maintain the cash rate unchanged.
"Both trend unemployment and underemployment are experiencing a gradual upward trajectory," Aird stated in the latest CBA Economics update. "Work hours are declining, and job advertisements show a discernible downward trend."
Highlighting these labor market dynamics, Aird elaborated, "Our expectation for a more significant loosening in the labor market, which varies from the RBA’s forecasts, is a principal reason why we foresee the commencement of an easing cycle in late 2024. Yet, given the persistent challenges with underlying inflation and the shrinking period to November, the likelihood of a delayed start to the easing cycle is increasing."
The economic slowdown was further highlighted by the first-quarter GDP data, which grew by a mere 0.1%. Over six months, the annualized GDP growth pace reduced to 0.8%. The RBA's current forecast places the average unemployment rate at 4.0% over the second quarter, consistent with recent predictions.
Aird noted, "Despite the bank’s non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment estimated at 4.3%, there remains significant uncertainty regarding these projections." Additionally, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock opined that the federal government’s $300 energy bill rebate is unlikely to either significantly mitigate or exacerbate inflation levels.
Aird supported this view, referencing earlier CBA economic predictions that the rebates might subtract two-thirds of a percentage point from the third quarter’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). "While this impact is noteworthy, the RBA is more focused on the core inflation dynamics, which excludes the effects of energy rebates," he remarked.
"Our perspective is that the mechanical reduction in headline inflation for Q3, due to rebates, will potentially lower short-term inflation expectations for households and businesses, helping stabilize wage expectations over 2024 and 2025," Aird added.
The RBA's accompanying statement to its board decision is expected to maintain a neutral stance. Despite the fluctuating dynamics and economic signals, Aird emphasized that predicting the exact timing for the commencement of an easing cycle remains inherently uncertain.
Published:Saturday, 15th Jun 2024 Source: Paige Estritori
Please Note: If this information affects you, seek advice from a licensed professional.
The Australian Finance Industry Association (AFIA) has recently introduced its Finance Industry Code of Practice, marking a significant advancement in the non-bank lending and specialist banking sectors. This pioneering initiative aims to establish a new standard for integrity, transparency, and fairness within the industry. - read more
Australia is currently experiencing a housing 'super cycle,' characterised by a substantial increase in demand for new homes. This surge is driven by a chronic undersupply of housing, demographic shifts, and evolving lifestyle preferences. For mortgage brokers, this trend presents a unique opportunity to expand their client base and services. Find out now if you qualify and compare rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check! - read more
Australian non-bank lender Moneytech has announced a strategic integration with Xero, the global small business accounting platform. This partnership aims to provide small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) with a more efficient and streamlined process for accessing working capital. - read more
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is currently assessing whether further reductions in interest rates are necessary, following recent economic data indicating increased consumer spending and persistent inflation in certain sectors. This evaluation comes after the RBA's decision to hold the cash rate steady at 3.60% in September, subsequent to three cuts earlier in the year. - read more
The Federal Court of Australia has issued permanent injunctions against Cigno Australia Pty Ltd and BSF Solutions Pty Ltd, preventing them from engaging in unlicensed credit activities and charging prohibited fees. This ruling follows findings that, between July 2022 and October 2023, the companies provided loans totaling $34 million to over 100,000 consumers, while charging fees exceeding $70 million, all without holding an Australian Credit Licence. - read more
Australia is experiencing a surge in investments in Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) as the nation aggressively pursues its goal of achieving 82% renewable energy by 2030. This transition, driven by rapid expansion of solar and wind infrastructure and the closure of coal plants, has created a growing demand for flexible energy storage solutions. - read more
Recent data reveals a significant resurgence in property investor activity within Australia's mortgage market. In the three months leading up to June 2025, investor loans accounted for 38% of new mortgages, marking the highest proportion since 2017. This uptick translates to nearly 50,000 loans valued at approximately $33 billion. - read more
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has released its October 2025 Financial Stability Review, providing a comprehensive assessment of the nation's financial health. The report concludes that Australia's financial system remains well-positioned to navigate the current global economic uncertainties. - read more
In a strategic move to streamline operations, ANZ Bank has announced plans to reduce its workforce by 3,500 employees by September 2026. This decision is part of the bank's broader initiative to enhance operational efficiency and reduce redundancy within its organisational structure. - read more
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has reported a record full-year cash profit of A$10.25 billion for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025. This impressive financial performance is attributed to robust growth in both home and business lending sectors. - read more
Financial health refers to the state of one's personal financial situation. It encompasses a variety of factors, such as income stability, expenses control, savings, investments, and debt management. - read more
When it comes to securing a loan, the terms you agree to can have a lasting impact on your financial wellness. It's crucial to strike a balance between finding a loan that fits your needs and maintaining a healthy credit score. This delicate equilibrium is where loan comparison tools come into play, serving as navigational aids in the vast sea of credit options. - read more
Understanding financial health is paramount when venturing into the realm of loan acquisition. It's the backbone that supports not just your immediate monetary requirements but ensures longevity in your fiscal stability. At the heart of this understanding lies a critical aspect: the credit score. It's a numerical representation of your financial trustworthiness, influenced by past fiscal decisions and behaviors. - read more
Managing debt effectively is crucial for young adults, especially as they start building their financial independence. Understanding how to manage debt properly can help you avoid financial pitfalls and set you up for a stable future. - read more
Your credit score is a crucial part of your financial health. Essentially, it’s a numerical representation of your creditworthiness, calculated based on your credit history. In Australia, credit scores range from 0 to 1200, with a higher score indicating better creditworthiness. - read more
A financial crisis can come in many forms, such as a job loss, unexpected medical bills, or an economic downturn. These events can drastically alter your financial stability and may lead to financial distress. - read more
Managing debt is a cornerstone of financial wellness. Whether it's credit card debt, student loans, or a mortgage, keeping debt in check helps you maintain a healthy financial state. High levels of debt can lead to financial stress, impacting your overall well-being and limiting your ability to save for future goals. - read more
Your credit score is a critical number that plays a significant role in your financial life. It represents your creditworthiness, or in simpler terms, how reliable you are in repaying borrowed money. - read more
Soft inquiries are a type of credit check that does not impact your credit score. These checks occur when you or a company reviews your credit report as part of a background check, pre-approval process, or other non-lending purpose. - read more
Maintaining a healthy credit score is crucial for anyone looking to secure their financial future. A good credit score can open doors to better loan rates, more favourable credit card terms, and even housing opportunities. It's something that impacts many major financial decisions you make in life. Without a solid score, you might end up paying more in interest and find it harder to get approval for the things you really need. - read more
Need Help Finding a Loan?
Find out now if you qualify and compare
rates, offers and options from multiple lenders - without a credit check!
All finance quotes are provided free and without obligation. We respect your
privacy.
Knowledgebase
Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI): A type of insurance that a borrower might be required to purchase as a condition of a conventional mortgage loan, if the down payment is less than 20% of the property value.