Inflation Outlook Brightens as Australia Braces for Key CPI Update
Inflation Outlook Brightens as Australia Braces for Key CPI Update
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A crucial announcement regarding consumer prices is forthcoming as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) anxiously waits to steer its future monetary policy decisions.
Analysts and economy watchers alike have their eyes locked onto the publication of first-quarter consumer price index (CPI) data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, set to impact the nation's economic direction.
Following a decrease in annual inflation to 4.1% from a previous rate of 5.4%, optimism is in the air about reinforcing the disinflation trend witnessed in the latter half of the prior year. The drop to a 0.6% quarterly increase has been heralded as the smallest rise since early 2021, igniting hopes for continuous improvement.
While the RBA has not tweaked rates since their last adjustment in November, market participants are speculating that the upcoming steps will involve easing. However, projections for these reductions remain hazy and are presumed to be on the RBA's agenda later rather than sooner.
On the horizon is the upcoming CPI update on Wednesday, critical for the RBA's assessment of achieving their inflation goal of two to three percent. Both the RBA and banking economists envisage that this endeavor to rein in inflation might require continued slow and steady effort. Despite the arduous journey ahead, the projection sees mid-year inflation slowing to 3.3%, aiming to realign with the target at 2.8% by the close of 2025.
Economists from top Australian banking institutions predict a modest rise in March's CPI. Predictions range from 0.7% from National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank to a slightly higher 0.8% foreseen by ANZ and Westpac. This uptick is juxtaposed against an abnormally high 1.4% increase recorded in the previous March, leading to a potential dim in annual inflation rates.
Analysts from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) have presented a reserved chalk-up for the headline CPI at 3.4%, slightly beneath current RBA projections. CBA's assessment is backed by signs of tempering price pressures apparent in recent business and industry surveys. Nevertheless, items like rents and education could witness substantial inflation, with healthcare poised as a potential wildcard for price acceleration.
Stepping back a few days from those paramount releases, the economic agenda includes the presentation of "flash" purchasing managers' surveys in April. Following the Anzac Day holiday, the ABS will also disseminate producer price and export-import indexes which will send corresponding ripples across the markets.
Market winds are also responding to the longest continuous decline experienced by American indices since fall of 2022. With this backdrop of six consecutive skids for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, investors wrestle with an ambivalent earnings landscape and burgeoning international tensions. Thus, while the larger S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced declines, Australian share futures saw a slight uplift, paired with mixed performances within local benchmarks.
The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has announced a significant policy change aimed at mitigating risks in the housing market. Effective February 2026, APRA will impose a cap on high debt-to-income (DTI) home loans, limiting such loans to 20% of new home lending portfolios. This measure is designed to address concerns over escalating property prices and the potential for financial instability. - read more
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest lender, has voiced concerns over the current surge in home loan demand, suggesting it may be contributing to escalating property prices and potential financial instability. CEO Matt Comyn emphasized that while the bank benefits from increased housing credit, a more moderate growth rate would better support long-term financial stability and housing market accessibility. - read more
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Recent analyses indicate that Australian home prices are set to rise by approximately 7% in 2026, an upward revision from earlier projections of 5.6%. This anticipated growth is primarily attributed to a constrained housing supply coupled with resilient demand, particularly in major urban centres such as Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, and Perth. - read more
The Australian stock market has demonstrated remarkable resilience, with the S&P/ASX 200 index recording a 10.2% gain over the 2025 financial year. This performance comes despite a backdrop of global economic uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices. - read more
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), the nation's largest lender, has expressed concerns about the current surge in home loan demand, suggesting it may be contributing to escalating property prices and potential financial instability. CEO Matt Comyn emphasized that while the bank benefits from increased housing credit, a more moderate growth rate would better support long-term financial stability and housing market accessibility. - read more
RAMS Financial Group, a subsidiary of Westpac Banking Corporation, has been fined A$20 million by Australia's Federal Court for serious misconduct in its home loan practices between June 2019 and April 2023. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) initiated the lawsuit, citing issues such as the use of falsified payslips to approve loans, engagement with unlicensed mortgage referrers, and inadequate oversight mechanisms. - read more
Australia's 'Big Four' banks-Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA), Westpac, National Australia Bank (NAB), and ANZ-are strategically reducing their reliance on mortgage brokers in response to squeezed profit margins resulting from lower interest rates, rising operational costs, and intense market competition. Currently, mortgage brokers account for approximately 80% of new home loans in Australia, a significant increase from 50% six years ago. However, banks are now focusing on more profitable, in-house mortgage origination channels. - read more
In July 2025, Japanese banking giants Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG) emerged as significant growth drivers in Australia's business lending sector. SMBC recorded a 4.66% increase in their business loan book, adding A$1.19 billion, while MUFG achieved a 3.63% expansion, contributing an additional A$0.62 billion. - read more
The Australian Finance Industry Association (AFIA) has recently introduced its Finance Industry Code of Practice, marking a significant advancement in the non-bank lending and specialist banking sectors. This pioneering initiative aims to establish a new standard for integrity, transparency, and fairness within the industry. - read more
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Knowledgebase
Inflation: The rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services rises, eroding purchasing power.